Polymarket

Polymarket is the benchmark prediction market for the rest of the world. Launched in 2020 and operating from the Cayman Islands, the platform became the world's highest-volume prediction market during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, with hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume on election-related contracts. The technology is genuinely impressive: a decentralized order book built on Polygon, USDC-settled contracts, and an interface that makes blockchain-based trading accessible to non-technical users.

The product quality is not the problem. The problem is that US residents are not legally permitted to trade on Polymarket. In 2022, Polymarket settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million for offering binary option contracts to US residents without CFTC authorization — and subsequently geo-blocked US IP addresses. A US resident who circumvents the geo-block to trade on Polymarket is operating outside US financial law and faces meaningful legal risk.

Our verdict on Polymarket

Polymarket earns a strong score on product quality and global market leadership, constrained by the fundamental US access issue. For non-US readers in eligible jurisdictions, Polymarket is the top prediction market recommendation — the liquidity, the technology, and the market catalog are unmatched globally. For US readers: Kalshi is your legal alternative. It has less liquidity and a smaller catalog than Polymarket, but it is the only prediction market platform where you can participate without legal exposure.

How it works

Polymarket contracts are structured as binary yes/no questions about real-world events. Each contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99 (1%-99% implied probability). At resolution, winning contracts pay $1.00 USDC; losing contracts expire at $0. Settlement is on-chain via the Polygon network — no counterparty holds your funds, the smart contract pays automatically at resolution using a decentralized oracle (UMA) to determine outcomes.

Funding requires a USDC wallet connected to the Polygon network. Users can on-ramp via credit card or crypto transfer; withdrawals go back to the connected wallet address. The mobile app wraps this flow in a clean interface that hides most of the blockchain complexity from the end user.

Markets & liquidity

Polymarket's market catalog is the deepest available in prediction markets globally. Political events (elections, legislation, policy decisions), economic data (CPI, Fed rate decisions, GDP releases), crypto price events, sports outcomes, and entertainment markets are all available. During major elections, Polymarket's presidential and congressional markets have served as the de facto real-time probability consensus for global media outlets that could not access Kalshi's US-only data.

Payouts & fees

Polymarket charges no trading fees — the cost of trading is embedded in the bid-ask spread on each contract. Settlement is instant on-chain when a market resolves. Polygon gas fees are minimal (fractions of a cent per transaction), though bridging costs from Ethereum mainnet to Polygon can be material for large positions.

Availability

Polymarket is NOT available to US residents. The platform geo-blocks US IP addresses and its Terms of Service explicitly prohibit US participation following the 2022 CFTC enforcement action. Eligible users are in most non-US jurisdictions. The iOS app (id6648798962) and Android app are available for download, but US users will face account restrictions when attempting to trade.

Final take

Polymarket is the best prediction market product in the world for users in eligible jurisdictions. The liquidity, catalog breadth, zero-fee structure, and on-chain settlement are genuinely superior to regulated US alternatives. For US readers: download Kalshi instead. For international readers: Polymarket is the top recommendation in this category by a meaningful margin. [AFFILIATE: App Store URLs as fallback — direct affiliate links to be added by Chris]