ForecastEx

ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' in-house prediction market exchange — a fully CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) that launched in August 2024. Unlike Kalshi or Polymarket, there is no standalone ForecastEx app. You access it through IBKR's mobile app or web platform via the ForecastTrader interface, or as the engine behind some of Robinhood's event contract markets. The result is an institutional-grade prediction market embedded inside one of the world's largest electronic brokerages.

The mechanics are binary: buy Yes or No contracts on economic data releases (FOMC decisions, CPI, unemployment), political outcomes, climate events, and select sports results. Contracts price between $0.01 and $0.99 and settle at exactly $1.00 or $0.00. Yes and No contracts for the same market always sum to $1.01 — that extra cent is the entire exchange fee. There are no separate maker or taker fees on top of that, and posting passive limit orders costs nothing at all.

If you already have an IBKR account, getting started takes about 15 minutes — opt in, sign disclosures, and your existing brokerage balance becomes your trading collateral. No second KYC process, no second 1099 at tax time, no separate wallet to fund. If you don't have an IBKR account, that's where the friction starts. Opening one requires the full brokerage onboarding flow: identity verification, financial profile, trading experience disclosures. It's not difficult, but it's nowhere near the five-minute sign-up experience you'd get on Kalshi or Polymarket. Robinhood users can access ForecastEx contracts through Robinhood's prediction markets hub without the IBKR onboarding.

Profits come from correct predictions. Buy a Yes contract, hold to settlement, collect $1.00 if the event occurs. Or sell your position before settlement if the market moves in your favor. What makes ForecastEx genuinely differentiated is the monthly Incentive Coupon: ForecastEx invests the cash collateral backing its markets and passes 100% of the earnings back to traders. That yield has run approximately 3.80% APY on held contract value, paid whether or not your prediction ultimately wins. No other major US prediction market offers this. For traders holding positions over days or weeks, it's meaningful passive income stacked on top of the trading edge.

Payouts work through IBKR's standard brokerage infrastructure — there's no separate prediction market wallet. Winnings settle into your IBKR cash balance and withdraw via ACH or wire. Withdrawal requests submitted before 1:00 PM CST typically process same day. The clearinghouse is ForecastEx itself, meaning full collateralization and no third-party counterparty exposure. It's the most institutionally sound payout structure in US prediction markets.

State availability is mostly a non-issue. ForecastEx's macro, climate, and politics contracts rest on federal CFTC regulation and are available to eligible US residents in all 50 states. Sports event contracts are geo-blocked in states where gaming regulators have asserted jurisdiction — including New Jersey, Nevada, Massachusetts, and Maryland as of mid-2026, with an active CFTC lawsuit against Connecticut in play. If sports markets are your primary interest, confirm availability in your state before signing up.

The mobile experience via IBKR's app is functional rather than elegant. IBKR Mobile was designed for equity and options traders — ForecastTrader is an integration, not a purpose-built prediction market app. The interface is powerful but carries the cognitive load of a full brokerage terminal. For casual traders who just want to pick a market and place a bet, it's not the smoothest experience on the market.

ForecastEx is the right platform for an existing IBKR user who wants to add prediction markets without opening a new account, or for a serious macro trader who wants the deepest FOMC and CPI books available in the US. For mobile-first retail users, anyone new to brokerage accounts, or traders focused on sports and retail politics, the friction of the IBKR onboarding and interface may outweigh the fee and yield advantages. The incentive coupon and zero maker fee are legitimately best-in-class — but they require being in the right user profile to capture them.